SAN FRANCISCO—Global PC shipments are now expected to decline more than previously predicted following a dismal first quarter, according to a revised forecast by market research firm International Data Corp. (IDC).
Shipments are now expected to total about 256 million for the year, a decline of more than 7% compared with 2015, according to the revised forecast. First quarter shipments declined 12.5% from the same period of 2015, according to IDC (Framingham, Mass.).
IDC blamed a host of factors for shipment constraints, including weak currencies, depressed commodity prices, political uncertainty and delayed projects.
Loren Loverde, vice president of PC forecasting and research at IDC, said through a statement that the revision does not signal a change in factors driving the market. Loverde noted that the PC industry has now endured four consecutive quarters of double-digit shipment declines.
“This type of prolonged slump is unprecedented, and lowers the bar for some improvement going forward,” Loverde said. “Unfortunately, the PC market still faces some persistent challenges, and for now, improvement continues to mean slower declines."
IDC expects the pace of shipment declines to progressively slow through 2017, followed by flat shipments in 2018.
PC shipments, once the main driver of the semiconductor industry, have been in general decline for several years as consumers have warmed to new forms of mobile computing. However, declining growth rates for smartphones and tablets in recent months, which presumably reduce the competitive pressure on PCs, have not translated into stronger PC shipments, IDC said. The firm cited the financial pressures facing consumers and the free upgrade to Windows 10 from Microsoft continue to pressure PC shipments, IDC said.
"Although inventory has improved in some markets, channels remain extremely conservative," said Jay Chou, research manager for IDC’s worldwide PC tracker, "The economic and competitive pressures are particularly affecting the consumer segment, which is projected to see another year of double-digit declines in 2016, and decline throughout the forecast. In contrast, commercial shipments are projected to decline just 4.4% in 2016 and see slightly positive growth for the next few years."
Linn Huang, IDC’s research director for devices and displays, said the firm expects some PC market drivers to accelerate, including the rapid ascent of Chromebooks in U.S. schools enterprise upgrades to Windows 10. “Still, the backdrop to all of that remains an ever softening consumer PC market,” Huang said.
----Form EE Times